SEBASTIAN – Computer models for Hurricane Maria have been interesting this time around, as tracking for both the GFS and the European spaghetti paths are all in agreement for now.
The Hurricane Maria European models all agree on a northern track, except for a couple of spaghetti paths that take the storm west into the Gulf of Mexico.
These tracks can change depending on the weather, such as a cold front moving down from the south, the high pressure, etc. There are several weather conditions that steer a hurricane when it’s out at sea.
Most people say that the European hurricane model for Maria has been accurate thus far, and it was the same during Irma when it made landfall on the west coast of Florida instead of the east.
The GFS hurricane model for Maria has been the same as the Euro, steering it northward and past Florida in the coming days.
The problem with a lot of these hurricane computer models is the reliability since they are unable to keep up with certain weather conditions that can change the path of a storm.
This is why NOAA and its National Hurricane Center only does a 3 and 5-day cone of certainty when making a storm prediction, and sometimes the cone will change within that 3 or 5-day period because of sudden weather conditions.
For people living in hurricane-prone areas, it can become frustrating. Will it hit my area? Will it turn back out to sea? Those are some of the questions people have when trying to determine a path for the storm.
Unfortunately, some people wait until it’s too late to evacuate because they are focused on the predictions, which can change on a dime.
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