Experts at Colorado State University (CSU) announced its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, with nine hurricanes and a 50 percent chance that a major storm will make landfall in the United States.
The latest forecast differs from the one from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which suggests the United States might see a “near-average” stretch of storm activity through September. However, October—a notoriously stormy month—was not addressed in this prediction.
The seasonal outlook, released by CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, includes October and November and highlights warmer-than-normal waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean as key drivers of a season that could mirror last year’s busy one. The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans June 1 to November 30.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Michael Bell, a coauthor of the forecast.
CSU’s seasonal predictions, first pioneered by the late meteorologist William Gray in 1984, have long been regarded as some of the most reliable in the field. This year’s report projects 17 named storms, nine of which are expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, four are forecast to reach “major” status—Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph.
That’s a slight dip from 2024, which saw 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major ones. Last year’s season left a trail of destruction, with Hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton battering Florida’s Gulf Coast. Helene and Milton alone claimed at least 250 lives and caused over $120 billion in damages across the U.S.
By comparison, the 30-year average (1991–2020) stands at 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. This year’s outlook points to a busier-than-normal stretch ahead.
One factor in the forecast is the low likelihood of El Niño conditions developing during the season’s peak, from mid-August to October. El Niño typically creates a wind shear in the Atlantic, which can tear storms apart. Without it, hurricanes have a clearer path to intensify as they move toward the Caribbean, Gulf Coast, and U.S. East Coast.
The report pegs the odds of a major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline at 51%, well above the historical average of 43% from 1880 to 2020. Breaking it down, there’s a 26% chance a major storm hits the East Coast (including Florida’s peninsula) and a 33% chance it strikes the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border. The Caribbean faces a 56% probability of a major hurricane landfall.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and the forecast’s lead author, likened 2025 to “analog seasons” like 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2017.
“Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,” Klotzbach said. “While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty typically associated with our early April outlook,” said Klotzbach.
The CSU forecast follows a March prediction from AccuWeather, which warned of up to six systems potentially impacting the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is set to release its own outlook in May.
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