As the Atlantic hurricane season looms on the horizon, a new forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests the United States might see a “near-average” stretch of storm activity through September. However, October, a notoriously stormy month, remains uncharted in this prediction.
The ECMWF, a key player in global weather modeling that supports member states and the European Union’s Space program, projects about 12 named storms forming between the season’s start and the end of September.
Of those 12 storms, the ECMWF expects five to intensify into hurricanes by September’s end—a figure that aligns neatly with the NHC’s historical average. But while the numbers might sound reassuringly typical, the forecast leaves October and November out of the picture, a gap that’s raising eyebrows given October’s track record for churning out late-season surprises.
So, what’s driving this “near-average” outlook? Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane specialist at Colorado State University, took to X to break it down. He pointed to two key factors shaping the ECMWF’s prediction. First, the tropical Pacific is unlikely to tip into either La Niña or El Niño conditions this year. La Niña often supercharges hurricane formation by reducing wind shear, while El Niño tends to slam the brakes on storms with stronger shear. A neutral state, as forecast, keeps things balanced—neither boosting nor stifling storm development.
The second piece of the puzzle lies in the equatorial Atlantic, where hurricanes are born. Sea-surface temperatures there are expected to hover near normal through September, a sharp departure from the record-breaking heat of 2023 and 2024. Those scorching waters fueled bumper crops of storms in recent years, but this season’s cooler baseline could temper the Atlantic’s fury.
Still, “near-average” doesn’t mean “no risk.” The NHC’s historical data reminds us that even an average season can pack a punch—14 storms, including seven hurricanes, is par for the course when stretched across the full six months. And with October’s activity still a wildcard, coastal residents and emergency planners aren’t breathing easy just yet.
The ECMWF’s forecast offers a glimpse of what’s ahead, but as Klotzbach’s analysis hints, the Atlantic’s mood can shift with the winds. For now, the U.S. can brace for a season that’s neither quiet nor chaotic—at least through September. Beyond that, the crystal ball stays cloudy.
FEATURED EVENTS
