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Hurricane Dorian now expected to make landfall Tuesday morning

Hurricane Dorian is tracking south of Sebastian and Vero Beach.
Hurricane Dorian is tracking south of Sebastian and Vero Beach.

Sebastian could be spared the worst part of Hurricane Dorian if the current track continues. We’ve been telling everyone since Wednesday that this storm was going to change, and to not panic. We went from a potential direct hit to what looks like a storm that might pass us as it travels closer to the west coast of Florida.

Hurricane Dorian is still building strength and is expected to make landfall in Florida Tuesday morning. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are not ruling out a Category 5 landfall. However, the forecast is still predicting a Category 4.

Since last night, we’ve seen a big change in the computer models that are used for tracking purposes. This morning, the new cone and path issued by the National Hurricane Center is now matching the GFS and EURO models.

The models are showing landfall near West Palm Beach or Miami and then a slow turn to the north. If the storm remains inland as it travels west before making the long northern turn, Sebastian and Vero Beach will not get the worst of Hurricane Dorian. There is a big concern for flooding.

The GFS shows the storm going all the way to the west coast of Florida after the northern turn. Keep in mind that these are not official forecasts. We use these hurricane models to get an idea of where Dorian might be heading. The latest tracking by the National Hurricane Center appears to agree with these models.

Dorian is still a slow-moving storm and is located about 225 miles of the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The hurricane is moving northwest at 12 mph.

EURO hurricane model
EURO hurricane model
Hurricane Dorian Wind Probabilities
Hurricane Dorian Wind Probabilities

“The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Residents in Grant, Barefoot Bay, Micco, Sebastian, Fellsmere, and Vero Beach should have their hurricane plan in place. There’s no need to panic right now. So far, the tracking is looking better for our area.

Please stay tuned for more updates. We will be LIVE later today on SebastianDaily.com, Facebook, and on our YouTube channel.

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About Andy Hodges
Andy Hodges was born in Annapolis, Maryland and raised in Jupiter, Florida. Andy has been a radio & TV personality since the 1980s. He has worked for WLIZ, WFLX-FOX 29, WIRK, WIXI, WKSY, WRMF, and WJNO to name a few. After spending 7 years in Atlanta, Georgia during the 1990s, Andy returned to Florida and settled in the small town of Sebastian in 2000. In 2005, he returned to the broadcasting news sector and eventually joined our news team in 2016 as editor in chief. Andy's family has lived in Sebastian for more than 45 years.