Hurricane Dorian: Landfall Expected Monday Night in Florida

Hurricane Dorian's current path.
Hurricane Dorian's current path.

Hurricane Dorian is now expected to make landfall in Florida on Monday night and into Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Dorian is currently slowing down in movement, but wind speed is still increasing. The hurricane is still expected to become a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds when it makes landfall.

Sebastian has been in the spotlight on several computer-generated models as a possible area of concern, but now that might be changing. As we’ve said since Wednesday, the tracking will change with Hurricane Dorian in Florida.

“The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours,” the National Hurricane Center said.

There has also been a change in most of the computer-generated models. Some are now moving towards the open Atlantic near Florida.

However, the EURO and UK models are showing possible landfall between West Palm Beach and Miami before turning north through the middle of Florida. The models are showing this pattern more as the days go on.

EURO model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.
EURO model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.
UK model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.
UK model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.

However, the GFS/USA model shows landfall near Sebastian. These are unofficial forecasts, but the EURO and UK models have always been a little more accurate than others. Again, this isn’t the official forecast, but it may be something for us to keep an eye on.

GFS model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.
GFS model for Hurricane Dorian. NOTE: This is NOT a forecast.

Hurricane Dorian can make landfall anywhere between South Georgia and The Keys. It’s still too early to predict where this hurricane will make landfall.

The schools will be open on Friday but closed Monday in Indian River County and Brevard County.

Dorian is located 330 miles from the Southeastern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. The hurricane is moving at 13 mph.

Hurricane Dorian Spaghetti Models
Hurricane Dorian Spaghetti Models

In the coming days, we will have a much clearer picture of where Dorian will make landfall. Until then, remember that South Georgia and The Keys are a long stretch.

Sebastian residents should have their hurricane plan in place. There’s no need to panic right now, as we’ve said before, Hurricane Dorian’s path is expected to change again.


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About Andy Hodges 2806 Articles
Andy Hodges was born in Annapolis, Maryland, and raised in Jupiter, Florida. He has been a radio and TV personality since the mid-1980s. He has worked for WFLX-TV (Fox 29), WIRK, WLIZ, WIXI, WKSY, WRMF, and others. In 1994, Andy took a break from broadcasting and was a software and systems engineer for various companies. In 2002, he permanently moved back to Sebastian, where Andy's family has lived for over 45 years. He returned to the broadcasting sector in 2005. Andy joined Sebastian Daily as our editor-in-chief in 2016.