According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is only forecast to become a tropical storm as it shifts west of Florida.
As of Wednesday, there’s no threat of a hurricane in Sebastian. However, forecasters warn that there’s still a lot of uncertainty with the storm.
“It should be emphasized that this forecast track is highly uncertain until a true center forms,” the NHC said in a statement.
Most of Florida is still in the cone of uncertainty as tracking shifts more to the Gulf of Mexico.
On the other hand, some of the guidance models show an increase in southwesterly shear over the Straits of Florida that could limit the potential of the cyclone.
“Simply put, there are a lot of hurdles in the system’s way, so it is best to stay on the conservative side at the moment and continue to stress the large uncertainty after it leaves the Caribbean. Little change was made to the forecast intensity, although the guidance has come down at a longer range for many of the models,” the NHC added.
For Sebastian, all we can do is wait and see how this system recovers after is moves over the high mountains of Hispaniola. There’s nothing in the forecast that suggests Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine strengthening into a major hurricane. But this far out, it is difficult to predict at this time.
Sebastian should feel some of the impact from the storm on Sunday and into Monday. If the forecast holds, we can expect wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph as it passes Florida. We emphasize that this current forecast can change depending on other environmental conditions.
Sebastian Daily will continue to provide updates as information becomes available.