SEBASTIAN — One of the world’s leading hurricane researchers is forecasting a relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year, pointing to a developing El Niño in the Pacific and Atlantic waters that aren’t running as hot as they have in recent years.
Dr. Andy Hazelton, a University of Miami scientist who helps program NOAA’s high-resolution hurricane forecast models, shared his outlook in an interview at the American Meteorological Society’s Tropical Meteorology Conference in San Diego.
Hazelton said the El Niño pattern typically produces hostile upper-level winds over the Atlantic that can suppress tropical development. He added that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are not as warm as they were during the active seasons of the past few years.
“This typically causes hostile upper-level winds in the Atlantic and can cut down Atlantic tropical activity,” Hazelton said.
He noted that 2023 was also an El Niño year but still saw a fairly busy Atlantic season because exceptionally warm Atlantic waters overpowered the usual dampening effect. This year, Hazelton expects the combination of El Niño and more normal Atlantic temperatures to produce activity closer to a classic El Niño pattern.
However, he cautioned that a quieter forecast does not mean people can relax.
“It only takes one hurricane,” Hazelton said, pointing to 2018 when an El Niño-influenced season still produced Category 5 Hurricane Michael, which slammed into Florida’s Panhandle with devastating force.
Hazelton knows the destructive power of these storms firsthand. Last year he flew aboard a Hurricane Hunter aircraft that measured a record wind gust of 252 mph inside Hurricane Melissa.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, just two months from now.